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Kamel
Abu Jaber [LBustami@ID.GOV.JO]
President of the Institute of Diplomacy, Amman, Jordan
Arab
perceptions of non-military security challenges
in the Mediterranean
The
creation of the State of Israel in 1948 continues to constitute
a security trauma for the Arabs. The failure of the Peace Process
commenced in Madrid 1991 deepens this feeling adding to the frustration
not only on the popular but the official level too. Driven to the
Peace Process largely by their successive military defeats, the
Arabs, since Madrid are finding they are now defeated on the political
and the legal levels too. Israel continues to ignore international
law, the Geneva Conventions and UNSC resolutions. The psychological
impact of this new reality is perhaps now one of the most significant
non-military security challenges in the Arab World.
The
deteriorating economic situation, poverty and rising unemployment
resulting in stagnant, frail, even failed economies makes the picture
bleaker. Further frustration emanates also from the Arab feeling
of being targeted, isolated and besieged with many Arab states remaining
on the "rogue state" list with threat of Islamophobia.
The twin challenges, internal and external combined, have caused
an increase in extremist tendencies on the one hand and a feeling
of fatalistic helplessness on the other. The paper also addresses
certain aspects of inter Arab relations also leading to popular
frustration and resentment.
Prof
Tony Allan,
SOAS, University of London, [tony.allan@soas.ac.uk]
Water
Security in the Middle East and the Mediterranean
The purpose of the paper will be to establish the nature of the
water deficit facing policy makers in the region. It will be shown
that all the political economies of the region have the capacity
to supply their municipal and industrial water needs from their
own water resources. By 1970 almost all the economies of the region
had become water deficit economies in terms of food self-sufficiency.
It will be shown that policy makers have been able to solve their
water deficit problem in the global 'problemshed' rather in their
local 'watersheds'. Almost 30 per cent of the Middle East and North
Africa's annual water needs are accessed via virtual water. Virtual
water is the water embedded in key traded commodities such as wheat.
It requires 1000 tones of water to raise a tonne of wheat. The price
of wheat has been falling on world markets for at least a century.
Wheat is has been available on the world market at half its production
cost during the last two decades of the twentieth century. Virtual
water provides an economically invisible and politically silent
solution to the region's water problem. The chapter will also address
the issue of whether there will be sufficient freshwater, part of
it traded, as 'virtual water', to meet a doubled global population.
The paper will deploy social, economic and political theory to identify
trends in water policy in the industrialised semi-arid North and
in the less-industrialised semi-arid South. It will be emphasised
that water scarcity is both and environmental as well as a socially
constructed notion. Remedies to environmental scarcity are available
to political economies with the social adaptive capacity to trade
their way to water 'entitlement'.
Is
there a water problem in the Middle East and North Africa?
Another case of the blind people and the elephant?
Accessing
global soil moisture as traded virtual water. And on the dangers
of scientific analysis by outsiders visiting communities and polities
Is
there a problem?
Water is a problem say some
Others say it's not
Water is in short supply say some
Others insist it's not
Like
the blind men and the Elephant
It depends on what you touch;
But even more important still
Is who you are and what you vouch
Useful
and un-useful science
Water
is very short
The hydrologist insists
Short for whom?
Ask the knowing economists?
For they detect virtual water
In food embedded
And wondrous subsidies
For food importers added
Politics
Peoples
and governments are blind
Alien scientists insist
As dangerous water fantasies exist
And in beliefs for millennia persist
Wise
politicians know that they
Must resist the simple (scientific) truths
And by subscribing to pervasive water lies
Remain in power along with (Their) essential truths [Allusion to
Goleman 1997]
Impaired
interpretation
Why
not use Our theories say social theorists
They explain all these mysteries
But (alien) scientists are blind fools
Devoted to familiar narrowing tools.
'It's far, far better to be blind
Knowing only what impairment finds'.
The
answer
Because
the population too fast grows
The answer to the question posed -
is 'Yes there's a regional deficit'
But for the water stressed
A solution also does exist
Through trading to 'entitlement'. [An allusion to Sen. 1981]
Tony
Allan, 1997, SOAS, ta1@soas.ac.uk
Mustafa
Aydin [maydin@avsam.org] Ankara
University,
Faculty of Political Science and Center for Eurasian Strategic Studies,
Ankara, Turkey
Post-Cold
War Conceptualisation of Security in Turkey
This
paper argues that Turkey traditionally utilized Hobbessian conceptualisation
of security to define its national interests, with emphasis on geopolitical
and stra-tegic regional balances and territorial survival of the
state. However, recent challenges emanating from post-Cold War international
developments as well as domestic socio-political changes and rising
awareness about good-governance and imminent environmental degradation
that the country faces, have resulted in calls for re-consideration
of "what constitutes the national security of the country".
As
a result, new dimensions of security (such as environmental, economic
and societal security issues) that are considered as "soft" security
issues by traditional analysts are creeping in to the national security
thinking and conceptualisation in Turkey. However, these calls have
not resulted in complete reversal of traditional conceptualisation
of security in Turkey for number of reasons. Among them, a perceived
increase in security threats to territorial integrity of the country
since the end of the Cold War, both from outside (through armed
conflicts erupting along its borders) and inside the country (rising
consciousness of various ethnic groups and challenges emanating
from Islamic revivalism) makes the transformation all the more difficult.
In
this context, this paper will argue that there is a certain tension
between the ever-present "hard" security issues, which increased
since the end of the Cold War in contrast to Europe where their
prevalence has declined progressively, and slowly arising "soft"
security consciousness, which challenges not only the academic description
of security in Turkey but also the long-established control and
upper-hand of the traditional governing elites, both military and
civilian. Thus, the paper will argue that the end-result of the
current discussion between the various schools of thought on security
policy in Turkey will affect both the country's foreign and security
policies, with its implications for its domestic politics, and also
the regional security and stability in wider Euro-Mediterranean
region. The paper will end with some suggestions about how to reconcile
these apparently contradicting worldviews in Turkish context.
Hans
Günter Brauch [brauch@onlinehome.de]
Free University of Berlin and AFES-PRESS, Germany:
Worldviews and Mindsets of Decision-makers:
Hobbesian vs. Grotian or American vs. European Perspectives –
Relevance for Security Policy in the Mediterranean
The
perceptions, perspectives, and decisions by policy-makers are influenced
by their worldviews and by their respective mind-sets. Their worldviews
are influenced by the intellectual traditions of the realists (Machiavelli,
Hobbes, Morgenthau), the idealists (Kant, Wilson), and the pragmatists
(Grotius, Monnet). During the Cold War, according to K. Booth the
mind-set of policy makers were constrained by ethnocentrism, political
realism, ideological fundamentalism and strategic reductionism.
This
paper argues that two ideal type perspectives and interpretations
of political events and strategic tendencies towards the Mediterranean
region co-exist: the Hobbessian perspective of US civilian and military
strategists and policy makers that perceives developments through
the prism of threat analysis and the more pragmatic European perspectives
of policy-makers that have claimed that there is no military threat
confronting Europe from this region but that several non-military
challenges and soft security issues exist.
While
many US analysts legitimised the need for missile defence with the
existing and emerging missile threat from so-called rogue states
(Libya, Iraq, Iran), the four existing security dialogues (of the
EU, NATO, WEU, OSCE) have all stressed cooperative security concepts.
With regard to the future the different world-views, mind-sets and
conceptual lenses of scientists, analysts and decision-makers make
them see different challenges confronting the West. In its Long-Term
Trends 2015, the CIA addressed only population growth and water
scarcity. Climate change was not perceived as a security challenge,
nor has desertification. In Huntington's Clash of Civilization,
non-military environmental challenges do not even exist.
These
different worldviews and mind-sets determine political priorities
and spending alternatives. While the prevailing perception of the
Bush Administration claims to counter its perceived missile threat
with a global missile defence systems, many European governments
and analysts perceive different challenges: asylum seekers and refugees
on the shores of Spain, Italy and Greece and a growing non-documented
immigration. Both perspectives have hardly addressed longer-term
structural causes of the perceived new non-military challenges nor
do they have longer-term strategies to avoid potential conflict
constellations and human catastrophes that may arise from the interaction
of structural factors and the conjunctural level.
Neither
short-term reactions nor a European missile defence system may cope
with these non-military challenges that may confront the region.
Lessons may be drawn from the so-called Sahelian syndrome: desertification,
drought, food shortages, hunger, internal migration and internal
and trans-border conflicts between nomads and resident farmers South
of the Sahel. Longer-term non-military and cooperative strategies
of conflict avoidance may be needed to avoid human catastrophes
in the MENA region.
Hans
Günter Brauch [brauch@onlinehome.de]
National Missile Defence Debate in the United States
A Brief Assessment
The technology we develop today,
determines the strategy of tomorrow
and the politics of the day after tomorrow,
Lord Solly Zuckerman, 1963 and 1989
The paper is based on three premises: 1) The US missile defence
is primarily technologically, economically and strategically driven.
2) It has been legitimated in terms of new challenges and threats
from so-called "rogue states" and in terms of the national
interests of the US. 3) The US decisions may lead to a fundamental
change of the strategic and arms control philosophies as they evolved
since the 1960s with uncertain strategic and political consequences.
In the first part the long competition between offence and defence
dominance in the US national strategic debate will be briefly reviewed
for the past 40-50 years that resulted during the Nixon administration
in persuading the USSR to accept the ABM-Treaty in 1972 and to downgrade
missile defences. In 1983, President Reagan challenged these assumptions
with his vision of a Strategic Defense Initiative. During the Executive-Congressional
debate of the 1985-1988 the sup-porters of the ABM treaty prevailed.
During the Bush and Clinton administrations the bilateral US-Russian
talks on the ABM Treaty did not result in an agreement.
While during the 1970s, the US decided for technical and Washington.
During the Reagan administration R&D for SDI and BMD technologies
and systems in-creased and it continued at high levels during the
Bush and Clinton administra-tions. After several crucial tests failed,
President Clinton did not make a deploy-ment decision in 2000 while
the Bush Administration expressed its determination to go ahead
with deploying a BMD system irrespective of a) the constraints of
the ABM Treaty, b) allied concerns and c) the opposition of Russia
and China.
The paper will include the outcome of the strategic review in the
Pentagon and the decisions that will be made until end of August
2001. Based on the evidence available until then, the paper will
try to assess: a) the debate within the Admini-stration, b) between
the Administration and Congress, and c) the outcome of the consultations
with US allies in Europe and in the Asian-Pacific Region. In the
final section the paper will offer preliminary assessments on the
political repercussions of US national decisions for the future
of a) the ABM treaty, b) of arms control, c) for the relations within
NATO, c) and relations with other nuclear countries.
Béchir
Chourou, University of Tunis [bechir.chourou@planet.tn]
Conceptualisation of Security in the Maghreb Countries
This
paper is articulated around three main points. First, it is argued
that regimes in the three core North African countries (Algeria,
Morocco, Tunisia) equate national security with the preservation
of their positions as the unique holders of power in their respective
societies. Consequently, most policies are designed to ensure that
form of security rather than deal with serious risks that confront
the countries such as resource scarcity, environmental degradation,
and poverty.
Secondly,
the European Union (EU) tended to accept at face value this definition
of security, in the sense that it considered those regimes as the
guarantors of stability. The EU associated itself with them and
invited them to sign the 1995 Barcelona Declaration. This gave them
a recognition and an legitimacy which they could not obtain from
their own people, and led to a deterioration of Europe's image in
the concerned countries. Recently, the EU appears to have become
more critical of North African governments, particularly in the
area of democracy and human rights. But it is doubtful that this
will restore Europe's credibility and improve its public image.
Thirdly,
the Barcelona process has not only failed to bring peace, stability
and shared prosperity to the Mediterranean, but it may have complicated
the task of achieving those objectives in the future. The paper
argues that among the many factors that may explain this failure,
two are particularly important. On the one hand, the Barcelona process
does not involve all the states that constitute an ecologically
and culturally integrated entity, and it has not been used as a
framework in which all those states can join efforts to resolve
common and inter-locking problems. For example, problems such as
desertification, pollution, and the management of scarce resources
are best dealt with at a regional or sub-regional level. Similarly,
many economic sectors require large markets for an efficient production.
Yet, these issues continue to be approached in a piecemeal way.
On
the other hand, the Barcelona process has adopted measures which
not fail to resolve existing problems, but in fact complicate their
resolution. Thus, if we take the case of trade, by limiting free
trade to manufactured goods, the Euromed Partnership Agreements
do not improve welfare, and lead to a decline in agricultural production,
which in turn leads people to move from the countryside to urban
centres, which leads to overcrowded cities where basic services
are in-adequate or totally absent, etc.
Upheavals
similar to the one taking place in Algeria are bound to occur in
other places around the Mediterranean if urgent measures are not
taken to resolve what one of the Chairmen of this panel calls the
"survival dilemma" that confronts the Maghreb and the
rest of the MENA region, and if all partners do not show more commitment
to mobilise the political will and the material resources that can
match the magnitude of the challenges.
Béchir
Chourou, University of Tunis [bechir.chourou@planet.tn]
Implications of Declining Food Supplies: Food Security vs. Market
Economy
This
paper examines the agricultural policies followed by Southern Mediterranean
partners and the impact of the partnership agreements signed with
the European Union on those policies. It argues that in most cases
the agricultural sector has been neglected in favour of the industrial
one, which led to a growing dependence of those countries on imports
to feed a growing population. It further ar-gues that the free-trade
agreements and the Association agreements that preceded them accelerated
the degradation of the agricultural sector. This trend is attributed
to several factors, including: open access of industrial goods to
Euro-pean markets; access to those same markets awarded to specific
agricultural products, which led to a switch from the production
of staple products to the production of exportable ones; and the
availability of European agricultural products at prices that cannot
be matched by local Southern producers. These trends are likely
to worsen when regulations adopted by the World Trade Organisation
relating to the trade of agricultural products go into effect in
the coming years. The situation that may ultimately emerge is one
where the South will be able to neither feed itself nor to afford
purchasing its food – a situation that can become a major source
of severe conflicts.
Catherine
Withol de Wenden [dewenden@ceri-sciences-po.org]
CNRS/CERI, France
Migration as an international and a domestic security issue?
The
inclusion of migration among academic areas dealing with security
and conflicts is a rather new issue. Twenty years ago, migration
debates were more confined to labour market and integration issues,
both including a pluridisciplinarity of approaches: economic, sociological,
cultural. Now political scientists and specialists of international
relations have studied the field of migrations. Some reasons can
explain this recent trend:
first,
analysis relating migration to globalisation that deal with international
relations (refugees, transnational networks), nation states and
sovereignty (challenges to national public policies);
second,
a transfer of security from East-West to South-North issues, that
stress more internal affairs than strategic studies, while considering
migration as one of the future strategic issues;
third,
some extremist expressions of Islam including urban violence and
terrorism, which, namely in Europe, have led to some amalgamations
of migration with Islam and Islam with the new threat.
Ethically,
such an evolution is not deprived from any danger, because it may
reinforce the securitarisation of immigration, stressing more on
border control policies, illegals, transnational networks, dubious
allegiances, challenges brought to states and sovereignties than
on other central topics like new mobility of flows, living together,
citizenship and multiple identities.
However,
the internationalisation and the securitarisation of immigration
has raised some new questions such as multiple allegiances, plural
citizenship, influence of external factors on the internal political
order (refugees, convergences of immigration policies and regional
level in the world, co-development policies) and, inversely, impact
of internal factors on international issues (weight of minorities
and groups on the definition of external policies, namely with the
relations of recipient countries with the countries of origin).
But
migration is not only an international issue (one can let appreciate
if it is necessarily a security issue): it is also a domestic issue
with implications of the political community of those living together
on the re-definition of citizenship at its margins, of loyalty compatible
with multiple references and choices, of intrusion of external or
transnational forces in the internal political order.
All
these topics are on the move, defining the social texture of international
relations and questioning the internalisation of international relations
as well as the internationalisation of the internal order.
Nils Petter Gleditsch [npg@prio.no]
International Peace Research Institute, Oslo (PRIO) & Norwegian
University of Science and Technology (NTNU), Trondheim
Environmental Security and Environmental Conflict
Environmental
security is an important part of the wider concept of security that
emerged towards the end of the Cold War and which now plays an increasingly
important part of the debate on security issues. However, resource
and environmental issues also play an important role in thinking
about the more traditional security issues. Resource scarcities
of various kinds – water being perhaps the most prominent –
have been proposed as potential triggers for armed conflict. If
environmental degradation depletes the resource basis it may exacerbate
existing resource conflicts. The empirical basis for such assertions
is limited and much of it suffers from serious methodological problems.
This paper reviews the evidence and discusses how the relationship
between resources and conflict is mediated by factors such as regime
type, economic development and ethnic fragmentation. Theories of
environmental conflict also need to take a more balanced view of
global scarcity, the declining role of population pressure, and
the possibility of environmental cooperation.
John
Grin [grin@pscw.uva.nl] and Mehdi Parvizi Amineh
University of Amsterdam, Department of Political Science
New Regionalism as a Grotian approach to security, development and
democracy in the Mediterranean region
The
Mediterranean is a prime example of a region in which a new conceptualisation
of security is highly needed, paying attention to other factors
and actors than the classical approach that focuses on states and
the means of power on which they have a monopoly.
The
security situation in the Mediterranean may be analysed from various
conceptual perspectives. In this paper, we wish to elaborate a Grotian
perspective on security in the region, drawing on the recent approach
of New Regionalism. The Grotian perspective is interesting for several
reasons. First, in addition to states and inter-state institutions
it also pays explicit attention to economic and social interaction.
Thus it has the merit of broadening our attention to non-state actors
and other means of influence than merely money and power, thus paying
attention to what have been identified since the 1970s as realism's
blind spots in the developing 'world society.' Second, and closely
related, a Grotian approach appeals to us because it stresses that
not facts and trends of integration and disintegration are to be
our foci in the quest for security and development. Rather, we are
to deal with perceptions of such facts and trends - perceptions
that may be changed in processes of political judgement in search
of new ways to establish security and development.
We
will then introduce the recently proposed concept of The New Regionalist
Approach and argue that it offers an approach to deal with that
situation in a way that may be seen as an elaboration of the Grotian
approach. It is attractive because of i) its explicit relation to
globalisation and ii) its focus on institutional arrangements that
may help to shape mutual perceptions. Four fundamental levels of
analysis are used in this approach to regionalism. They are such
dimensions as politics, economy (finance and production), security
and ideas (culture, knowledge, know-how). The approach pays attention
to the historical background of a developing regional pattern of
co-operation and registered interests of state and non-states actors
in the regional projects. Subsequently, we will sketch how security
in the region is being shaped by globalisation trends. Finally,
we will discuss on theoretical grounds some problems of the political
exchange processes needed in a New Regionalist Approach and elaborate
our Grotian approach to dealing with them: a hermeneutic dialogue
that helps to create trust.
Colin Kahl [ckahl@polisci.umn.edu]
University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, US:
The Political Ecology of Violence: Lessons for the Mediterranean
1.
Introduction. The intro would explain why the connection between
population, environment, and violent conflict has become so trendy
in academic and policy circles in the West.
2.
Demographic and Environmental Stress: A Syndrome of Pressures on
Societies and States. This section would discuss the relationship
between the variables at the heart of the book project (population
growth, climate change, water scarcity, desertification, food shortages,
and urbanization/pollution). It would also identify the ways in
which these factors create pressures on poor communities and governing
institutions in countries lacking the political will and/or the
social and institutional capacity to adjust/adapt.
3.
Neo-Malthusian Hypotheses. This section would discuss three hypotheses
pathways linking demographic and environmental pressures to armed
conflicts within countries: (1) economic deprivation (conflicts
driven by societal grievances); (2) state disintegration (conflicts
emerging from the weakening of governing authority; "failed
states"); (3) state exploitation (conflicts driven by the narrow
interests of governing elites). This section would provide a review
of the relevant literature (Myers, Kaplan, Homer-Dixon, Kahl, etc.),
criticisms, and a smattering of empirical examples from around the
globe.
4.
The Neoclassical Challenge. This section would discuss the recent
literature within the tradition of neoclassical economics that contends
that resource abundance, rather than scarcity, is the chief source
of environment-related conflicts. Specifically, it would address
two hypotheses: (1) the rentier state hypothesis (abundance creates
corrupt and illegitimate states prone to fragmentation and violence);
and (2) the honeypot hypothesis (resource abundance produces greed-driven
violence). This section would touch on the recent work done by Paul
Collier (World Bank) and Indra de Soysa, among others, and offer
comments and criticisms.
5.
The Social and Political Context. This section would make the obvious,
but important, point that demographic and environmental pressures
are not necessary nor wholly sufficient causes of violent conflict.
Rather, violence only occurs in particular social and political
contexts. Moving beyond this basic insight, the section will identify
three intervening variables that help determine which societies
are most vulnerable to demographically and environmentally induced
conflicts: (1) the inclu-sivity of governing institutions (which
determines the peaceful options social groups have for advancing
their interests without violence, as well as the institutional constraints
placed on predatory state elites); and (2) the strength of group
identification (which determines the ability of aggrieved individuals
to overcome collective actions problems inherent in organized violence).
The bottom line will be that countries with exclusive political
institutions (authoritarian governments) and highly segmented societies
(societies with deep ethnic, religious, and/or class cleavages which
do not cross-cut one another) are the most prone to demographically
and environmentally induced violence.
6.
Implications for the Mediterranean Region. This final section will
draw on the previous discussion to make predictions regarding prospects
for demographically and environmentally induced violence in the
Mediterranean region.
Ephraim Kam [ephraimk@post.tau.ac.il]
Tel Aviv University, Jaffee Center, Israel:
Conceptualising Security in Israel
Israel's
national security concept combines three basic components:
1.
The threat perception, which refers to three main levels: the threat
created by Palestinian and Shi'ite terrorist operations and guerrilla
warfare; the threat emanating from Arab regular conventional forces;
and the threat related to Arab and Iranian non-conventional capabilities.
Israel takes into account that it would face an Arab - Iranian military
coalition in a future war, although the Arabs have been unable to
build such a coalition since 1974.
2.
The basic constraints imposed on the shaping of Israel's security
concept, such as the basic asymmetry between the Arab states and
Israel; Israel's basic quantitative inferiority, in terms of territory,
geography and population; or its inability to achieve a strategic
victory through military means.
3.
The Israeli answer to the threat, which combines several elements,
such as: maintaining a qualitative edge, in order to balance the
Arab quantitative superiority; building a credible deterrence against
Arab both conventional and non-conventional attack; or securing
supply of qualitative arms, including by domestic defence industries.
Israel's
national security concept is gradually developing, due to changes
in its strategic neighbourhood, such as: the status of the Arab
- Israeli peace process; the Palestinian uprising; changes in the
Arab - Israeli military balance; and the strategic military build-up
of Iraq and Iran. It is also affected by the role of the superpowers
in the Middle East, especially following the collapse of the Soviet
Union.
Peter H. Liotta [liottap@nwc.navy.mil]
Military and environmental security:
Revisiting the concepts in the Euro-Mediterranean
The failure to see the Euro-Mediterranean as a geopolitical community
where common aspects of security and common interests can be addressed
must be conceptually revisited as we look to future regional integration
potential. NATO expansion is not the only security measure being
tested in the evolving Europe. Yet despite the symbolic progress
that has occurred since the Euro-Mediterranean ministerial conference
held in Barcelona in November 1995, it remains true that to speak
honestly about Mediterranean security is to enter a con-ceptual
minefield. The reality remains, nevertheless, that Europe and the
Medi-terranean are not simply divided by a North-South relationship
(as some critics of the Barcelona process might suggest the dialogue
implies). What is happening in Europe, whether one refers to it
as coöperative security or comprehensive security, has implications
for regions far beyond the Mediterranean in the next century. In
essence, a grand experiment in security architecture is taking place.
It is not clear that this experiment is doomed to failure. Regarding
the Mediterranean region in particular, what may well be changing
is the notion that of all the issues of security, issues of military
security matter most. Indeed, security-whether one insists on a
distinction between "hard" and "soft" security-is
about more than protecting the country from external threats; security
includes economic security, environmental security, and human security.
This paper examines the significance and conflict between military
and environmental security, and offers possible pathways for integration.
Conceptual frameworks built from new secu-rity recognitions should
thus incorporate flexibility enough to allow for inevitable contradiction
yet provide structure able to accommodate change and provide the
potential for progress. As the security environment evolves and
as relationships between states and regions grow and become increasingly
linked in complex interdependence, so too will the understanding,
application, and relevance of new confidence and partnership-building
measures.
Professor
Monique Mainguet [monique.mainguet@univ-reims.fr]
Université Reims Champagne Ardenne,
Laboratoire de Géographie Zonale pour le Développement,
Membre de l'Institut Universitaire de France
Docteur Han Guang,
Université Normale du Hunan, Post-doctorant au Laboratoire
de Géographie Zonale pour le Développement
Frédéric Dumay [frederic.dumay@univ-reims.fr]
Université Reims Champagne Ardenne, Ingénieur,
Laboratoire de Géographie Zonale pour le Développement.
Jean-Christophe
Georges,
Laboratoire de Géographie Zonale pour le Développement,
Université de Reims Champagne-Ardenne, 51 100 Reims, France
Why desertification is accelerated in Sahara-Sahel in Mauretania
and in the Chinese deserts in the last century?
Two
dry regions of transition between dry arid and dry-subhumid were
chosen in China (from 48° to 51 ° N and from 116° to
121° E) and in Mauretania (from 16 ° to 19 ° N and from
16 ° to 12 ° W) to try to under-stand the causes, the mechanisms
and acceleration of desertification dur-ing the 20th century.
In
China, two diachronic maps from 1950 and 1990 of areas which be-came
desertified allowed to quantify the speeds of the desertification.
In the Western Sahel of Mauretania, a natural dynamics of geologic
scale has been replaced by a new accelerated aeolian erosion and
water erosion system which on the time scale of one generation has
the same conse-quences. A model of acceleration was able to be established
with the pas-sage of a positive sediment budget in a negative sediment
budget corol-lary of the post-neolithic climate drying and the overexploitation
of culti-vated and grazing land during the 20th century.
A
precise chronology of the degradation was established for the second
part of the twenty century revealing that from 1984, the reversibility
of the degradation is strongly compromised in the area of urban
influence of Nouakchott.
Antonio
Marquina [marioant@cps.ucm.es]
University Complutense, Madrid, Spain
Political
Security Concepts Revisted:
Co-operative Security, Human Security, Security Partnership
Mediterranean Applications
This
paper analyses the application to the Mediterranean of different
concepts of security since 1995. It includes the analysis of official
papers done in the context of the Barcelona Process as well as the
NATO and WEU dialogue with Mediterranean partners for co-operation.
One of the concepts widely used by politicians and experts is the
concept of co-operative security. The paper explains not only the
content of this concept but also the practical application in different
documents. It establishes the consequences of this application and
the confusion and contradictions created in the Mediterranean regional
security context.
The
paper explains the attempts to include the concept of human security
in the Euro-Mediterranean framework and its ambivalent use, linking
the concept of security to ideas such as human rights and human
development. The paper explains the clash between state security
and individual security, especially in the Southern and Eastern
Mediterranean states, the limits of the concept, its perspective
and its links with other concepts.
Finally
the paper explains the content of the security partnership concept.
The paper explores the goals of the concept and the specific application
to the Mediterranean.The conclusion is obvious. This concept is
very ambitious but it fits very well the goals of the new European
approach to the Mediterranean. There are, however, several preconditions
for its application. In this respect the paper explains the North-South
assymmetries that must gradually be overcome.
Czeslaw
Mesjasz [mesjaszc@ae.krakow.pl],
Cracow University of Economics & Jagiellonian University, Poland
Economic and Financial Globalisation and its Consequences for Se-curity
in the Beginning of the 21st Century
The
end of the Cold War has contributed to acceleration of the process
of eco-nomic and financial globalisation, which, in turn, brings
about the need for further, or maybe even the "second"
reconceptualisation of security in international relations. The
first reconceptualisation of security took place in the final period
of the Cold War and immediately afterwards. Two opposing views were
proposed – widening the concept of security, or using it in
a narrow sense, solely as military security. Changes in the contemporary
world society in the beginning of the 21st Century provide arguments,
which favour widening the concept of security. The
main aim of the paper is to present how economic and financial globalisation
influences security issues in the following sectors – military,
political, economic and ecological.
Due
to different interpretations of globalisation and security, in the
first part of the paper a survey of their definitions will be presented
and working definitions of those concepts will be elaborated. In
the main part of the paper a survey of areas of influence of economic
and financial globalisation upon security in specific sectors will
be depicted. The idea of the levels of analysis will be also elaborated.
In selected cases the typology of areas will be supplemented with
analysis of security issues and mechanisms of influence. The paper
is treated as an introductory attempt to elaborate a framework typology
for further studies of areas and mechanisms of relationships between
economic and financial globalisation and security.
Bjørn Møller [bmoeller@copri.dk]
Senior Research Fellow, Programme Director, Board Member
Copenhagen Peace Research Institute (COPRI) [http://www.copri.dk/copri/researchers/moeller/bm.htm]
Fredericiagade 18, DK-1310 Copenhagen K, Denmark
Phone: +45 3345 5052, Fax: +45 3345 5060
Levels of security analysis: Global, Regional, National, Societal
and Human Security With two Case Studies on the Balkans and the
Mediterranean
The
paper provides a review of recent thinking about the concept of
security, including the addition of several new levels of analysis
to the traditional one of "national" (i.e. state) security,
namely societal, human (i.e. individual) and global security. Acknowledging
that it is a matter of social construction whether an issue becomes
a security issue, the pros and cons of "securitizing"
issues is discussed with a special emphasis on "human security".
On this theoretical basis, the interplay between global, national,
societal and human security is analysed in two cases: the Balkans
and the Mediterranean.
Mamdouh Nasr [ursula@brainy1.ie-eg.com]
Ain Shams University, Faculty of Agriculture, Department of Agricultural
Economics, Shopra, El-Khima, Cairo, Egypt
Fellow at the Center for Development Research, Bonn, Germany
Assessing Desertification in Mashrik Countries: Policy Implications
In
regions where food security and poverty alleviation are priorities,
such as the Mashrik region, the primary emphasis regarding land
is its availability, the abatement of land degradation, and efficient
land and water management are of vital importance. The Mashrik region
(or MENA region) extends from the Atlantic Ocean (Morocco) in the
west, to Iraq in the north, to Egypt in the south, and to Yemen
and Oman in the southeast. It comprises, 17 countries with a total
area of 9,5 million km2, which represents about 7% of the world's
total land area.
This
study examines two sets of questions:
-
What is desertification, and how can its impact on productivity
be monitored?
-
How extensive is the desertification problem in the Mashrik region
now, and how has it changed over time?
Potential
policy actions and their implications are discussed against the
background of what is already being done in governmental and non-governmental
efforts to address the problem of desertification in the Mashrik
region.
The
study presents environmental data on each of the countries in the
Mashrik region and on the region as a whole, which was collected
by a satellite remote sensing system over the last 17 years. The
images of the Mashrik region produced by the NOAA satellite showed
no alarming damage to vegetation- quite the opposite: we estimated
that the vegetational boundary has expanded into the desert in most
of the Mashrik countries due to human.
Teresa Mendizábal [araba@orgc.csic.es]
Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC),
Madrid - Spain
Juan Puig de Fábregas
Estación Experimental de Zonas Aridas (CSIC), Almería
- Spain
Desertification in the Southern Europe and the Maghreb and its implications
on demographic instability
The
Mediterranean basin, along its N-S direction, shows one of the world's
strongest gradients in climatic, economic, social and cultural factors.
The interaction among these factors drives land use changes, and
hence changes of land condition and desertification in widespread
areas that, in turn, show feedback effects on the gradients themselves.
Relatively closed market agriculture, driven by the demographic
increase of rural population and food security policies, was widespread
in Southern Europe during the first half of the 20th century, and
today it still prevails in the Maghreb. This situation causes the
expansion of marginal agriculture and the increase of stocking rates.
Its land use systems are very sensitive to drought events, often
suffer from decreasing yields, soil and fertility losses, and to
irreversible vegetation changes, particularly in rangelands. Open-market
agriculture, driven by regional agricultural policies, prevails
today in Southern Europe. It characterizes by the concentration
of population and investments on fertile areas, often with increase
of irrigation, and the release of marginal agriculture, which reverts
to rangeland and afforestation. Expanding irrigated land increases
the risk of over-exploitation of water resources and its implications
on soil and aquifer salinisation, as well as downstream impacts
on wetland and fluvial ecosystems. The coupling of both situations
in the Western Mediterranean leads to a positive feedback that increases
the steepness of the socio-economic gradients, as well as S/N migration
potential. The re-investment of capitals from migrants into their
home areas often causes over-exploitation and desertification by
its lack of environmental concern, and up to the present it contributes
less than expected to stabilize the whole system.
Henrike
Peichert [Peichert@un.org],
A promising hydrological peace process?
Hydropolitics in the Nile Basin
Perceived
water resource scarcities have been assumed as potential triggers
for violent conflict. Studies on transboundary water issues have
long featured predominantly the river basins in the Middle East
as potential conflict areas. Moreover, because of its undisputed
importance, water can be easily abused as potential bargaining-chip
in negotiations, making it an even more conflictive policy-issue.
However, recent research (Homer-Dixon, Bächler) has demonstrated
convincingly that transboundary water conflicts - being a cause
of disagreement among states - do not lead to conflict but are then
generally embedded in other, overarching political conflicts. Current
high-level political initiatives (Petersberg Round Tables, Worldbank-UNDP)
at the international level even promote strongly the concept of
water as a catalyst for much broader cooperation and partnership
among states.
The
opportunities and constraints of transboundary water issues as a
vehicle for cooperation will be discussed using the Nile cooperation
as example. The current on-going cooperation among the Nile riparian,
coined the 'Nile Basin Initiative', represents an interesting example
of how and to what extent different factors such as political change,
in particular with regard to national political attitudes and motivations,
increasing demographic pressure, related resource demands and perceived
increasing water scarcity (the national and political perception
and definition of water scarcity) and backing by international donors,
have led to intensified cooperation and a new understanding of partnership
among the Nile riparians. The focus of analysis will concentrate
on international relations and the broad range of involved transnational
stakeholders. It will be discussed what type of lessons learned
the Nile Basin Initiative might offer with regard to other transboundary
water disputes and what can be expected from the newly developed
partnership.
Mohamed Kadry Said [kad354@afmic.com]
Military Advisor, Al Ahram Center for Political and
Strategic Studies, Cairo-Egypt
Landmines left from WWII and their impact on human,
economic and environmental developments: The Egyptian Story
For
over 50 years, since the end of World War II, Egyptians have been
paying the price of conflicts they were not responsible for. In
events leading up to the 1942 Battle of Al-Almein 19.7 million landmines
were planted in the Egyptian western desert by Britain, Germany
and Italy. The removal of this huge amount of landmines has been
a permanent issue on the Egyptian dialogue agenda with the British,
German and Italian officials, military and civilians. Beside historical,
political and legal aspects of the problem Egypt has to face its
serious humanitarian consequences and its devastating social and
economic impacts. The story of landmines in Egypt is now interacting
with the rising international awareness of the problem, the increasing
role of the non-governmental organizations (NGOs), and the Egyptian
strive for solving the problem through cooperation with the three
concerned European countries and the international organizations
at large.
Mohamed
Kadry Said [kad354@afmic.com]
Military Advisor, Al Ahram Center for Political and
Strategic Studies, Cairo-Egypt
A Southern perspective and assessment of NATO's Mediterranean Security
Dialogue
On
1995, the NATO Council launched a Mediterranean security dialogue
to deal with post-Cold War risks emanating from the European southern
and eastern flanks with the hope to contribute to the stability
of the Mediterranean region. The dialogue has been shaped since
its start by mixed interests and perceptions of the dialogue countries,
the ups and downs of the Arab-Israeli conflict and the uncertainties
surrounding the future role and missions of the NATO as seen from
across the Mediterranean. The NATO dialogue has suffered from several
political impediments basically the Middle East Peace Process and
the American and European WMD non-proliferation policies rarely
focusing on the Israeli armament programs. A real assessment of
the NATO initiative should consider both dialogue sides attitudes
towards membership, interactions with other dialogue forums, and
the depth of cooperation achieved and the prospects of its evolution
in the future.
Djilali Sari [djilali_dz@yahoo.fr]
University of Alger, Alger, Algeria
Increasing Urbanisation in the MENA region: Causes of Conflicts?
Based
on the rich cultural and architectural traditions dating back to
remote antiquity and to Islam, the MENA cities have been recording
a very high growth. They account for more than half the total population
with record rates in the two most urbanised groups, namely the major
petroleum-exporting countries of the Gulf and the countries recently
affected by conflicts that have led to significant displaced rural
inhabitants (Lebanon, autonomous Palestinian territories, Jordan
and Iraq). As regards Israel, the main factor is the sustained continuation
of Jewish immigration.
Except from the Gulf petroleum countries, the lack of control over
the accelerated urbanisation is seriously hampering the social and
political integration of the youth, chiefly in the popular districts
of hypertrophied cities, districts conducive to the expression of
forces of dispute and fundamentalism, a source of destabilisation
and social explosion.
In
addition, such urbanisation is continuing in combination with an
equally serious phenomenon, i.e. a multiform pollution. This is
all the more concerning that it prevails in a mostly arid and hyper-arid
region where the inhabitants are faced not only with the chronic
drinking water shortages but also with the HTM (Hydrically Transmitted
Diseases), respiratory diseases, because of an industrialisation
that does not always abide by hygienic standards. Except for the
Gulf countries, the present developments are everywhere questioning
the quality of life with its many fall-outs on the health of the
inhabitants in the SAP (Structural Adjustment Policy) era. Finally,
it is indeed governance that is directly put in question, through
the wide gap increasingly separating the inhabitants from the public
powers at the time of an irreversible globalisation that imposes
highly attractive models.
This
is why we suggest to consider the following three issues:
-
A strong growth, but with very different forms and paces;
-
the growing degradation of environment;
-
the cause of conflicts.
Abstract
in French
Héritières
de riches traditions culturelles et architecturales remontant à
la haute antiquité et à l' Islam, les villes de la
MENA enregistrent une très forte croissance. En effet, elles
représentent ? dans l' ensemble plus de la moitié
de la population totale, avec des taux records dans les deux groupes
les plus urbanisés, soit les Etats gros producteurs- exportateurs
de pétrole dans le Golfe, et des pays récemment affectés
par des conflits à l' origine d' importants déplacements
de ruraux (Liban Territoires palestiniens autonomes, Jordanie et
Irak). Dans le cas d'Israël, le facteur primordial revient
à la poursuite soutenue de l'immigration juive.
En
dehors des pays pétroliers du Golfe, la non maîtrise
de l' urbanisation accélérée entrave gravement
l'insertion sociale et politique des jeunes, particulièrement
dans les quartiers populaires, de surcroît de villes hypertrophiées.
Des quartiers propices aux forces de contestation et d'intégrisme,
source de déstabilisation et d'explosion sociale.
Par
ailleurs, pareille urbanisation se poursuit en conjuguant ses effets
aux phénomènes non moins graves, ceux d' une pollution
multiforme. D' autant que dans une région en grande partie
aride et hyperaride, les habitants sont confrontés non seulement
aux pénuries chroniques de l' eau potable mais aussi aux
MTH (maladies à transmission hydrique) et maladies respiratoires,
compte tenu d' une industrialisation ne respectant pas toujours
les normes d' hygiène . Hormis les pays du Golfe, partout
l' évolution en cours met directement en cause la qualité
du cadre de vie, avec toutes les retombées sur la santé
des habitants, à l' heure des PAS. En définitive,
c' est bien la gouvernance qui est directement en cause , soit le
large fossé séparant de plus en plus les habitants
des pouvoirs publics, à l' heure d' une mondialisation irréversible
imposant des modèles fort attrayant.
Aussi
proposons-vous d'examiner les trois points suivants :
- Une
forte croissance mais avec des formes et rythmes très variables
- La
dégradation croissante du cadre de vie
- Les
causes des conflits.
Waltina
Scheumann [scheumann@imup.tu-berlin.de]
Institute for Management in Environmental Planning,
Technical University Berlin, Berlin, Germany
The Water Issue in the Turkish-Syrian Foreign Relations
Since
the end of the cold war, conflicts over transboundary watercourses
have gained increasing attention. Strategic studies even predicted
the outbreak of "water wars" between riparian states in
the coming decades and it was assumed that the Euphrates river basin
would be a potentially vulnerable region. The unilateral development
of water resources in south-east Turkey through the Southeastern
Anatolian Project (GAP) has strained the relationships between Turkey,
Syria and the Iraq, and no trilateral agreement has yet been signed.
However, the water issue is but one of many not settled conflicting
issues Turkey and Syria. Historically, the negotiation process over
the Euphrates river had shown phases of conflicts and cooperation
with changing coalitions. The present pattern of conflict, however,
derives primarily from non-water issues and policies that seriously
hamper cooperative solutions. Security issues, unresolved territorial
disputes, struggle over regional hegemony and relationships to Israel
are the burdensome factors, while economic cooperation -- including
water resources -- would promise benefits and stability.
Mohammed
El-Sayed Selim
[mohammedselim@hotmail.com]
Cairo University, Egypt
Arab Perceptions of Euro-Mediterranean Security
The
paper outlines the main elements of Arab perceptions of Euro-Mediteranean
security with a view of identifying their implications for the security
dimensions of the Euro-Mediterranean Partnership. These perceptions
will be reviewed along the following dimensions, (i) The geographical
domain of Euro-Mediterranean security: Is it purely Mediterranean
or Euro-Mediterranean?, (ii) the major sources of security threats:
Domestic, regional, trans-regional, or global sources? (iii) the
main strategies advocated to achieve security in the Euro-Med domain:
conflict resolution vs. conflict prevention and CBM strategies;
and (iv) what are the main relationships, according to the Arabs,
between Euro-Mediterranean economic cooperation and the settlement
of political-strategic issues, and between the elimination of different
categories of weapons of mass destruction. Because, Arab perceptions
of Euro-Mediterranean security differ in certain respects, the paper
will outline commonalities and differences among perceptions of
various Arab countries.
Sir
Crispin Tickell
Chancellor of the University of Kent, Canterbury:
Risks of Conflict: Population and Resource Pressures
Wars, conflicts and the use of force are the endemic condition of
humanity. Few like it. Almost all condone it. The reasons are almost
as various as people themselves. Today we face threats to human
society which derive from our treatment of our planet as a whole.
There
are five main drivers for change in the human condition, each associated
with the others, and all pointing towards risks of social breakdown,
which in turn could lead to violence in one form or another. First
comes the rate of human population increase, and within it the trends
towards urbanization, imbalances within populations, and widening
gaps between rich and poor. The second driver is the change in the
condition of the land surface, and within it industrial contamination
and mounting problems of waste disposal. The third driver is shortages
of water and decline in water quality. The fourth is damage to the
natural ecosystems on which humans critically depend. The fifth
is change in the chemistry of the atmosphere, and climate change.
Together these factors can make for what is called state failure,
particularly in poor countries, and enhance the prospects for conflict.
The
triggers for conflict are as various as the problems. An important
and often neglected one is the flow of refugees as environmental
conditions deteriorate. But crises which sometimes produce violence
can also produce cooperation. In the future we need to think differently
about the human place in the natural world, and aim for sustainability
of human society rather than its material wealth. We must control
our own numbers, and look at resources as capital to be lived off
rather than run down. The thirty or so societies which have preceded
our own all collapsed for different reasons, often environmental
in character. Until we recognize this combination of problems, we
cannot hope to resolve them.
Robin
Twite [Robin@ipcri.org]
Director, IPCRI Environmental Program, Jerusalem, Israel
The Environmental Impact of the Conflict on the Territory of Israel
and the Palestinian Authority: 2000-2001
It
is axiomatic that war and civil disturbance have a negative effect
on the environment. The Israeli/Palestinian conflict is no exception.
From the outbreak of the first Palestinian "intifada"
in 1988 the environment of the West Bank and Gaza has been adversely
affected by the confrontation between the two peoples. Decisions
taken by the Israeli occupying power were governed in large measure
by political considerations rather than by concern for the welfare
of the Palestinian environment. Examples include the location of
Israeli settlements in the West Bank and Gaza, and the construction
of poorly planned by-pass roads to serve the needs of Israelis.
Nor
has the damage been confined to the Palestinian territories. The
long term environmental welfare of Israel itself is threatened by
the inability of Israelis and Palestinians to work together effectively.
There are basic environmental prob-lems such as the supply and quality
of water or the disposal of hazardous waste, which can only be solved
if the two communities can effectively cooperate. Much long term
damage has already been done and while it is difficult to distinguish
between harm caused by the conflict and that due to other causes
such as the rapid growth in population of the region, still it is
evident that inability to coop-erate effectively has damaged the
environment of both Israel proper and the Palestinian areas.
In
the whole region the quality of life obviously suffers from violence
though the extent of such pain and misery is hard to evaluate. However,
between 1992 and 2000 there were definite signs of hope. The Oslo
Accords incorporated substantial provisions for long term cooperation
and clearly recognized the importance of environmental considerations.
Water and Environment committees were established and functioned
until September 2000 with varying degrees of success. Multi-lateral
talks were initiated after the Madrid meetings in 1992 and a series
of meetings on environmental issues took place under the chairmanship
of the Japanese government. Within civil society though NGO initiatives
and "people to people" programs cooperation was also evident.
Though there was much ten-sion over water distribution, disposal
of solid and hazardous waste, and land is-sues generally, relations
at both governmental and NGO level among profes-sional concerned
with the environment were often cordial.
Since
September 2000 things have sadly deteriorated. Palestinian claims
that Israeli violence has severely damaged the environment of the
West Bank and Gaza are documented in a series of reports emanating
both from governmental and NGO sources (examples will be given).
Israel for its part claims that Palestin-ian indifference to the
environmental damage caused by violence and poor handling of environmental
issues, has lead to long term damage (examples will be given). At
both an official and a personal level many links painstakingly established
since 1992 have been broken.
In
the long term there will no alternative for either party but to
return to negotiation. This is true both of the broad political
issues and of the environment in particular. A formal mechanism
for cooperation needs to be established and long term decisions
taken about key issues. Third parties may well be able to play an
important role in helping to create such mechanisms and see that
environmental considerations receive proper attention and the well
being of all the inhabitants of the region is protected.
By Stacy D. VanDeveer [sdv@cisunix.unh.edu]
University of New Hampshire, USA
Environmental Security:
Conceptual and Empirical Relevance for the Mediterranean Region
The
paper begins by outlining three major 'nodes' of theoretical debate
and empirical research regarding the connections between environmental
issues and security concerns (broadly defined). These include the
following: (1) the relationships between environmental issues and
military institutions, organizations and peacetime and wartime activities;
(2) the relationships between environmental factors and traditional
security concerns related to collective violence; and (3) the relationships
between environmental issues and 'new' definitions or conceptions
of security such as 'human' or 'comprehensive' security. Evidence
presented in the paper demonstrates that, in the realm of discourse,
all three nodes of debate are of growing relevance in Mediterranean
policy and analytical debates. Moving beyond debates and policy
maker rhetoric, the paper examines the extent to which these 'environmental
security' concerns influence the more material aspects of policy.
What evidence is there that environmental security issues are changing
policy behaviours (other than speech)? To what extent can one see
programmatic (and funding) changes as a result of growing interest
in environment-security linkages?
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